UK non-oil GDP back at peak at end-2013
Simon Ward
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GDP is provisionally estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and by 1.9% for the year as a whole. These numbers are likely to be revised higher. Quarterly GDP changes between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2013 have already been raised by 0.2 percentage points per quarter. If current third and fourth quarter numbers – 0.8% and 0.7% respectively – are increased by the same amount, 2013 growth will rise to 2.0%.
Excluding North Sea oil and gas production, GDP expansion last year was 2.0% and will probably be raised to about 2.25% later in 2014 as revisions come through.
GDP in the fourth quarter was still 1.3% below peak, reached in the first quarter of 2008. The non-North Sea shortfall is smaller, however, at 0.3%. Monthly output data and official estimates indicate that GDP in December was 0.4% above the quarterly average – see chart. This, in turn, implies that the non-North Sea measure regained its peak level at end-2013, even before allowing for revisions.
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