Markets have been fretting about a Chinese “hard landing” following last week’s release of weak Markit manufacturing PMI results for November. The key new orders index plunged to 45.7 last month, revised to 45.0 today – the lowest since March 2009.

A post here, however, expressed scepticism about the Markit numbers, on the basis that they often diverge from the more reliable official PMI survey while the suggestion of weakness was at odds with a recent pick-up in a leading indicator derived from the OECD’s Chinese leading index. The post advised suspending judgement pending the official PMI results.

On the face of it, these results, released today, are weak, though less bad than the Markit survey – the new orders index fell to 47.8 versus Markit’s 45.0. The official numbers, however, display a seasonal pattern despite a claim that they are adjusted. Using Datastream’s seasonal adjustment procedure to remove this variation, the official new orders index actually rose marginally in November – from 51.1 to 51.3 (i.e. the fall in the headline index was less than normal for the time of year).

This firming accords with both the aforementioned leading indicator and a recent improvement in the balance of upgrades and downgrades to equity analysts’ company earnings forecasts – official PMI new orders correlate with the earnings “revisions ratio”.

There was additional good news in today’s official survey in the form of a drop in the input price index to below 50, suggesting a sharp slowdown in producer price inflation that will enhance prospects for further monetary easing following yesterday’s surprise cut in reserve requirements.