About the author
Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.
Simon’s forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.
Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles, as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.
This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon to investment teams.
Simon obtained his bachelor’s degree in economics from Cambridge and master’s degrees in economics and finance from Birkbeck, London. He has worked with the NS Partners investment team in various corporate guises since the 1990s. Earlier in his career he benefited greatly from working for Tim Congdon at Lombard Street Research and Richard Coghlan at Bank Julius Baer.